Easily find Consistent Equity Mutual Funds (Dec 2018) with this sheet

The freefincal Equity Mutual Fund Performance Screener December 2018 edition is available for download. Use this screener file to easily find best performing equity funds that have consistently outperformed category benchmarks/indices with good downside protection (better performance when the index is down)  and/or upside performance (better performance when the index is up). This screener is meant for DIY investors to select a mutual fund (not review existing holdings).  The  PlumbLine” is a set of handpicked mutual funds intended for the new investor to quickly get started when they use the  Freefincal Robo Advisory Software Template.

Updates for December 2018

  • Finally eliminated missing fund. NOw data is available for 246 equity funds
  •  Have replaced Nifty 200 TRI with Nifty large midcap 250 TRI

What does this Equity Mutual Fund Performance Screener cover?

It gives you three outputs:

  • Rolling return outperformance consistency That is over every possible 1Y,2Y,3Y,4Y, 5Y periods, the fund returns are compared with category benchmark returns. Higher the outperformance consistency, the better. Suppose 876 fund returns were compared with 876 benchmark returns and the fund has beaten the benchmark 675 times, the consistency score will be 675/876 ~ 77%.
  • Upside performance consistency over 1Y,2Y,3Y,4Y, 5Y: Higher the better. A score of 70% means, 7 out of 10 times, the fund performed better than the category benchmark when the benchmark was moving upThis is a measure of reward.
  • Downside performance consistency over 1Y,2Y,3Y,4Y, 5Y: Higher the better. A score of 60% means, 6 out of 10 times, the fund performed better than the category benchmark when the benchmark was moving down. This is a measure of risk protection.

Easily Shortlist Best Equity Mutual Funds for December 2018

When to use this mutual fund screener

I recommend using this file only when you are on the lookout for a new fund after completing the following steps: Define need and duration —-> Decide asset allocation (use this tool) —-> Decide product category (use this guideline for mutual funds) —-> Then apply this screener for equity funds. Since the debt mutual fund space is continually shifting and a qualitative search is necessary, I believe it is dangerous to build a debt mutual fund screener and therefore will not. If you open the screener file, you see column headings such as this. Some of the columns in the consistent equity fund screenerYou know the fund category; benchmark; Fund name; no of 1Y returns of the benchmark(index); no of 1Y returns of the fund; no of times the fund 1Y return is above index 1Y return; the 1Y rolling return consistency; upside performance consistency and downside protection consistency. These columns are repeated for 2Y,3Y,4Y and 5Y. Now you can screen by filtering out funds that have return outperformance consistency of >=70% a downside protection consistency >= 70% and so on. You can do this manually with the excel filter buttons on use the macro buttons as shown below. The main page of the equity fund consistency screener where you can screen with the help of a couple of clicks

Benchmarks Used

These are benchmarks that are closest to the fund type and are used by many funds in each category.

Category CodeBenchmark
BankingEQ-BANKNSE Bank-TRI
InfrastructureEQ-INFRANSE Infra -TRI
Large-capEQ-LCNifty 100 TRI
Value OrientedEQ-VALNifty Largemidcap 250
Small CapEQ-SCNifty Smallcap 50 TRI
Mid-capEQ-MCNiftyMidcap150TRI
Multi-capEQ-MLCNifty Largemidcap 250
Large and MidcapEQ-L&MCNifty Largemidcap 250
ELSSEQ-TPNifty Largemidcap 250
Hybrid Aggressive (balanced)HY-AHNifty 100 TRI

NIfty Largemidcap 250 has 50% of Nifty 100 and 50% of Nifty Midcap 150. Motilal Oswal will soon come up with an index fund for this. This time I have decided to judge aggressive hybrid funds against Nifty 100 and not BSE balanced as done earlier.

Reward measure: Rolling returns outperformance consistency

Rolling returns are a simple way to estimate how consistency a fund has outperformed a benchmark. Take the case of Quantum Long Term Equity (the fund in the graph below) and BSE Large Cap (index in the chart below). Bet 31st Aug 2008 and 9th Sep 2017, there are 991, 7-year duration. If the return for each of these durations is plotted for the fund and index together, we will get a graph like this. An example of rolling returns used in the Equity Mutual Fund Performance Screener

The corresponding entries in the screener sheet would be as below (this is an example):

A small snapshot of rolling return entires in the equity mutual fund screener Notice that out the 991 fund returns, all of them are higher than the chosen index. Thus the rolling return outperformance consistency over 7 years =

= 991/991 = 100%. Naturally, higher the rolling return outperformance consistency, the better.

Reward and Risk measure: Upside Performance & Downside Capture

If you wish to understand how these are calculated, please read this first:  An introduction to Downside and Upside Capture Ratios and then proceed to this one for example. For some funds, a high downside capture consistency will lead to better returns, and for some funds, a high upside capture consistency will lead to better returns. The screener can help distinguish between the two types of performers. Recommend read: What is mutual fund downside protection and why is it important?

How to use the Equity Mutual Fund Performance Screener

There are multiple ways to screen for mutual funds. I will discuss a couple of examples.  If you are investing with a clear strategy, you should be clear about what category fund to choose. So the first step is to select the category. You can either use the macro buttons (top right), Another picture of the equity fund screener input pageOr you can do this manually: how to manually screen for funds in the screener file Then, method A:  Set the 3Y and 5Y rolling return outperformance consistency to be above 70% or so. That should give you a nice short list to choose from. Then among these, you can visually look for funds with right downside protection consistency and pick one. Method B: Look for funds with above 70% downside protection consistency over 3Y and 5Y and choose one. Remember, never set narrow filters and do not be too demanding.  Wanting to select the fund with the best past performance is plain immaturity. Your screening criteria should yield 5-6 funds at all times. Why should I use this screener? Why can I look at trailing returns and screen? Trailing returns are say, 3Y or 5Y returns calculated with the last business date (and 3Y and 5Y prior).  This is just one data point to consider. Here we find a lot more to determine consistency.

Other features:

1: There is a new sheet called standard deviation. This is a measure of how much individual monthly returns deviate from the average over 1,2,3,4,5 years. I will discuss its usage tomorrow.

2: There is a new sheet called “25% performance margin”.

Here you will see the following columns

No of rolling return entries Index (1 Year): Say 100 (1Y data points)
No of rolling return entries Fund (1 Year): Same as above: 100
No of times fund has outperformed index (1 year): Say 60. That is, out of those 100 returns, 60 fund returns are above index returns.

Rolling return outperformance Consistency Score (1 years) : 60/100 = 60%

No of times fund outperformed the index by 25% 1Y: out of those 60 times fund return was higher than the index, how many times was the fund return 25% more than the index? That is:

(fund return – index return)/index return >= 25%. Say this is 20 times.

% outperformance (by 25%) 1Y : 20/60 ~ 33%

No of times fund underperformed index by 25% 1Y out of those 40 times fund return was less than the index (100-60 as above), how many times did the fund return fall more than 25% of the index return. That is:

(fund return – index return)/index return <= -25%.  Say this is 15 times.

% underperformance (by 25%) 1Y:  15/40 ~ 38%

Upside performance consistency (1 year): Whenever the index gave a positive monthly return, how often did the fund give a better positive return?   Higher the better.
Downside protection consistency (1 year) Whenever the index gave a negative monthly return, how often did the fund give a less negative return? Higher the better.

The above columns will be repeated for 2,3,4,5 years.

How to screen for the best equity funds in December 2018

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Vr7Vsk7vyO4

 

Download the December 2018 freefincal equity mutual fund outperformance screener (with macro buttons for easy screening)

Download the macro-free (only data for you to screen yourself) versionYou can upload the file to Google sheets if you want.

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Updated: December 20, 2018 — 10:40 am

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M. Pattabiraman

This article is authored by M. Pattabiraman. He is the co-author of two books: You can be rich too with goal based investing and Gamechanger. He is a patron and co-founder of "Fee-only India" an organisation to promote unbiased, commission-free investment advice “Pattu” as he is popularly known, publishes research, analysis and holistic money management advice at freefincal.com which serves more than one million readers a year. Frefincal.com has more than a 100 free calculators on different aspects of insurance and investment analysis, including a robo advisory template for use by beginners.

6 Comments

  1. Sir,
    Mirae Asset india Equity fund is listed twice.

  2. Another question – I could see that the data points for “No of rolling return entries Index (1 Years)” is different for each fund though the index is same. Example – Motilal Oswal Multicap 35
    has 893 rolling return entries for index while Mirae Asset India Equity Fund – Direct Plan – Growth
    has 1218 rolling return entries though both are compared against the same benchmark – Nifty Largemidcap 250 TRI. Could you please explain?

    The number of rolling return entries for fund could be different as we might not have the data.

    1. That is because if the fund has only 100 data points, I use index only for those exact 100 data intervals. All other data is useless

  3. Pattu sir,

    From what I understand the, rolling return outperformace (RRO)period is based on each market day over a given period, also the upside performance consitency(UPC) is based on monthly returns over a given period. Now my question is, if a fund has 94% RRO and 14%UPC how to interpret this. High RRO means it has outperformed the index consistently but low UPC indicates low outperformance consistency. Pls. enlighten.

    Thanks

  4. Hi,
    HDFC Hybrid Equity Fund does not feature in the list of aggresive hybrid.

  5. Sir, regarding the comparison of fund category against benchmark index, if there is no data in the results, what does it imply. For e.g. comparing Multicap against Niftymidcap150TRI, the result tab shows no data. Pls. enlighten. Thanks.

Comments are closed.