Rs.1000 in 1980 is only worth Rs. 68 in 2019! Here is how to protect our money

Published: February 28, 2019 at 9:51 am

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Yes! If you had Rs. 1000 in the year 1980, it would just be worth Rs. 68 in 2019 if we use the cost inflation index data published by the government. The trouble is this index is an underestimate and out lifestyle has changed (if not improved) with the help of technology. So actual inflation is a lot higher. Here is how we can protect our hard earned money.

I made three presentations over the last couple of days to World Bank employees in their knowledge summit and these are some slides used in the talk. I will either tape or air the talk via YouTube Live shortly. This is the cost inflation index data (CII) from 1980. In 2016, the base of the index was changed from 1980 to 2000, but I have integrated both scales into a single index.

CII is the index used for computing indexation benefits for long terms capital gains tax computation and is proportional to the consumer price index. However, it does not realistically represent the inflation in our expenses.

Rs.1000 in 1980 is only worth Rs. 68 in 2019! Here is how to our protect money
Hamster picture courtesy:publicdomainpictures.net

 

Cost inflation index 1980 – 2019

Cost inflation index 1980 - 2019Shown above is the CII data form 1980 from 100 (base) to ~ 1200 in 2019. This is a year on year increase of 7%.

How Rs. 1000 in 1980 degraded over the years!

The value of Rs. 1000 over the years. The impact of inflation. Rs. 1000 in 1980 is only Rs. 68 in 2019!

If we assume a modest (unrealistic) 5% inflation in over the next 30 years, one lakh today would be worth about Rs. 20,000! This implies that we need to invest right so that our investment grow at a pace greater than inflation after tax! The trouble is this 7% is an underestimate.

Price of petrol per litre in the metros

Price of one litre of petrol in the four Indian metros since 1990

Fuel costs alone have increase at 6-8% over the last three decades. This means for any business to be profitable, the cost of their service or product should increase at a higher pace. Meaning, we need to shell out that much more.

 

Personal inflation: an example

This is my family’s personal inflation as detailed before: Inflation in India: Some Real Numbers

personal inflation data for my family over 20 years

Notice the increase in fuel, electricity, paid-help and vegetables. All these contribute to the overall 8% number. However, this is for a frugal family that does not eat out. That does not go to malls or the cinema. We do not change smartphones, cars or television every few years. Inflation on basic necessities is 8% without considering lifestyle creep! Unless we take corrective steps, we would like the hamster running in the same place on a wheel (picture above)

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Lessons from a cutting chai

Suppose you had Rs. 1 in 1990 and used 50 paisa to drink a cup of tea on the road. You invest the remaining 50 paisa and decide to drink a cuppa from that amount after 29-30 years. To so do, that Rs. 0.5 should have grown to Rs. 10! Meaning an after-tax return of about 11%.

After 20 years, tea on the street will cost about Rs. 60. If take Rs. 20 today and drank a cuppa with and invested the remaining Rs. 10, in order drink cutting chai after 20 years, the post tax return required is Rs. 10. If we choose not to take and stick to a safe return of 7%, then we need to invest 80% more!! That is Rs. 18 to drink tea after 20 years!

projected price of roadside tea over the next 20 years

Would you rather invest 80% more to get safe returns or would you rather take some risk, learn to manage it and invest a reasonable amount?

This situation is a lot like a fork in the road, were you have to choose between guaranteed failure (if we do not invest enough) and a chance of success (if the risk is managed right)

Fork in the rtoad and the decision you need to take about whether to take investment risk or not!
Picture courtesy: Wikimedia Commons

How to protect our money? What is the solution?

There is no option. Unless long term portfolio have at least 60% of equity (rest in fixed income), you will not be able to beat inflation. Your purchasing power will keep going down and will hut bad when your income drops to zero, aka retirement. Therefore, start as soon as possible, invest as much as possible and build a portfolio with good equity exposure as quickly as possible. There is no other practical option.

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Pattabiraman editor freefincalM. Pattabiraman(PhD) is the founder, managing editor and primary author of freefincal. He is an associate professor at the Indian Institute of Technology, Madras. since Aug 2006. Connect with him via Twitter or Linkedin Pattabiraman has co-authored two print-books, You can be rich too with goal-based investing (CNBC TV18) and Gamechanger and seven other free e-books on various topics of money management. He is a patron and co-founder of “Fee-only India” an organisation to promote unbiased, commission-free investment advice.
He conducts free money management sessions for corporates and associations on the basis of money management. Previous engagements include World Bank, RBI, BHEL, Asian Paints, Cognizant, Madras Atomic Power Station, Honeywell, Tamil Nadu Investors Association. For speaking engagements write to pattu [at] freefincal [dot] com

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1 Comment

  1. A good article… very typical from you 🙂

    Off late, the number of ads actually makes it very difficult to read… I am not against the ads… But, it comes every paragraph, some times if the paragraph is small (4-5) lines, we end up seeing ads every few lines.

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