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{"sheet":"Inputs","index":0,"n_rows":41,"n_cols":15,"rows_kept":41,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["This excel sheet uses MACRO's. You will need to enable them before proceeding. Zoom each sheet according to your convenience"]
[]
["Read and complete entries in this column first"]
["Fill only cell in green",null,null,"The corpus that you enter will divided into 5 buckets, that is different instruments as listed below. "]
["Current monthly expenses",35000," ","Enter the % allocation to each bucket. Bucket 1 represents a fixed income instrument like a FD. So returns will not vary"]
["Time to retirement",0,null,"For the other buckets you need to enter an average return and variation from this average (explained below)"]
["inflation prior retirement",0.08,null," The simulator will randomly generate (uncorrelated) returns for each year in retirement based on the input average return and variation"]
["Years in retirement",40,null,"Income for first few retirement years will come from bucket 1. This allows enough time for the sum invested in other buckets"]
["inflation post-retirement",0.08,null,"to appreciate. You can transfer from buckets 2-5 to bucket 1 if (a) you have made good returns in a year or (b) you don't have"]
["Annual expenses in 1st year of retirement",{"$f":"B5*12*(1+B7)^(B6)","v":420000},null,"enough funds in bucket 1 to continue. You can transfer sums among buckets 2-5."]
["Average return for post-retirement investments",0.08,null,"Usually it is recommend that one makes a transfer to bucket 1 only if the average compounded rate of return is close to historcial"]
["Total corpus needed to meet expenses",{"$f":"PV((1+retroi)/(1+rinf)-1,k,-prepen1,,1)","v":16800000},null,"returns (10-15% approx.). Unfortunately inflation in India hovers around 8% and this may not work"]
["Thus  while the corpus grows at an average rate you draw ",null,null,"This approach is known as defined withdrawals strategy or the retirement bucket strategy"]
["from it each year  accoring to your expenses (indexed to inflation).",null,null,"The idea of the simulator is to try and prolong the life of the corpus (you chose!) while accouting for inflation-indexed expenses."]
["This corpus will become zero at the end of retirement period",null,null,"With intelligent transfers can you beat the standard withdrawal method? If you are not used to equity investing then "]
["This is known as the systematic withdrawals strategy",null,null,"you will need to try several times! Don't give up. This strategy can make a big difference to your retirement plan"]
["Is there a way to cope with a lower corpus?"]
["Is there a way to make the corpus last longer?",null,null,null,"Instrument","Allocation","Fixed Return","This allocation (bucket 1) will approx. last for (years)*"]
["This simulator attempts to see if this is possible*",null,null,"Bucket 1","Fixed Income (Bank FD)",0.5,0.06,{"$f":"NPER((1+_min1)/(1+rinf)-1,-B33,F19*B20,,1)","v":17.484765310699807}]
["Enter corpus you think will fund your retirement",16800000,null,null,null,null,"Average Return","Variation from average return (std. dev.)"]
["If you don't want to use the above amt take a guess",null,null,"Bucket 2","Debt Fund",0.1,0.08,0.02,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"B20*alloc1/100000","v":84}]
["Rememeber it would be tough to cope with a much lower corpus",null,null,"Bucket 3","Hybrid: Balanced Fund",0.2,0.09,0.15,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"ROUND(Inputs!F19*Inputs!B20,0)/100000","v":84}]
[null,null,null,"Bucket 4","Large-cap (stocks/MF)",0.1,0.1,0.3,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"ROUND(Inputs!F21*Inputs!B20,0)/100000","v":16.8}]
["If you are going to receive an annuity ensure the corpus amount you enter",null,null,"Bucket 5","Mid-/Small-cap (stocks/MF)",0.1,0.12,0.4]
["above does not include the sum that will be used to provide the annuity",null,null,"* The idea is to use this time to let the sum in other buckets appreciate AND transfer at oppurtune times into bucket 1. Recommended time 8-10 years."]
["Enter the annuity or pension you will receive",null,null,"Important: If the allocation column turns red, ensure the allocations add up to 100% before proceeding"]
["This is constant throughout retirement",10000,null,"Note on Variation from average return: Suppose we consider an average of 15% and variation (or standard deviation of 40%)"]
["Enter annual income from other sources during ",null,null,"If we use a so-called normal distribution (the most common in nature) then about 68% of all return will lie centered about the average"]
["1st year of retirement",null,null,"return. Such returns will range from (15%-20%) to (15% + 20%) or -5% to 35%. Here 20% is half the standard deviation. Lower the"]
["Annual rate of increase of this income",0.01,null,"standard deviation lower the volatility. How justified are we in using a normal distribution? It works reasonably with US"]
[null,null,null,"market data. However we don't have enough data on Indian markets to see if this is suitable. However given the omnipresence of such"]
["Net annual expenses to be covered from corpus",null,null,"distributions in nature it is a safe bet as long as we keep in mind real life is more complicated than we can ever imagine!"]
["in the first year of retirement",{"$f":"(prepen1)-(pension)-(income)","v":410000}]
[]
[" Once you have read & completed the entried in this sheet, proceed to the 'instructions' page to learn how to use the the simulator. You could then  proceed to the 'Simulator' page"]
[]
["Systemactic withdrawals can be made in two ways: One with fixed average return as mentioned above or it can be made with varying returns from different buckets. "]
["If buckets are used the (weighted) average of returns from each bucket is used. The simulator calculates the total corpus in each year of retirement using all the 3 methods."]
[]
["* Please remember this is a simulation tool. It presents a series of situations with high volatility in returns to help you understand the factors that affect retirement corpus management. Althought subect to reasonable "]
["assumptions it can never susbtitute for real life scenarios, The take home message is managing a retirement corpus is an active exercise. Passive statergies like relying on annuities or a pension will not work for most!"]

{"sheet":"Instructions - Simulator sheet","index":1,"n_rows":26,"n_cols":20,"rows_kept":26,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["1. To obtain a fresh set of random returns press this"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"2. To advance to the next year press this",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"3.For the same interest rate data set click this to redo the exercise!"]
[]
[]
["4. Before advancing remember to review: (a). balances in each bucket."]
["(b). compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of the buckets."]
["A good thumb rule is to sell if the CAGR is close to or above"]
["the average rate of each bucket you have entered in the 'Inputs' sheet"]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
["6.In the screenshot 21 is the current year. However bucket 1 has funds only"]
["up to year 20. So you cannot proceed unless you transfer funds into bucket 1"]
["If funds are not available its game over!"]
[]
["7. The annual corpus obtained by three stratergies are plotted here to"]
["evaluate the progress of the bucket statergy"]
["To accommodate the plot only the last years in the table will be displayed"]

{"sheet":"Simulator","index":2,"n_rows":111,"n_cols":55,"rows_kept":111,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[9,20,9,21],[9,22,9,23],[2,4,2,12],[7,22,7,23],[8,22,8,23],[7,20,7,21],[8,20,8,21],[6,26,6,27],[5,3,5,12],[5,14,5,18],[5,20,5,27],[6,24,6,25],[6,22,6,23],[6,20,6,21],[9,53,9,54],[9,47,9,48],[9,51,9,52],[7,24,7,25],[8,24,8,25],[7,26,7,27],[8,26,8,27],[9,24,9,25],[9,26,9,27]]}
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"IF(Inputs!F19+Inputs!F21+Inputs!F22+Inputs!F23+Inputs!F24=100%,1,0)","v":1}]
[]
[null,null,null,null,"Compound Annual Growth Rate",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Current Year",null,{"$f":"MAX(AQ12:AQ111)","v":0},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,14,{"$f":"SUM(AQ12:AQ111)","v":0}]
[null,null,null,null,"Bucket 1","Bucket 2",null,"Bucket 3",null,"Bucket 4",null,null,"Bucket 5",null,"Bucket 1 can support expenses up to year",null,null,null,{"$f":"SUM(AN12:AN1111)-1","v":17},null,"If cells in the 'transfers' coumns turn red it means you are trying to transfer "]
[null,null,null,null,{"$f":"_min1","v":0.06},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"To continue transfer",null,{"$f":"SUM(AM12:AM111)","v":8.4400758301636269},"lakhs to bucket 1",null,null,"more than the available balance. Decrease amt until the 'red' goes away",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,23]
[null,null,null,"Random Annual Returns",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"BALANCES (Lakhs)",null,null,null,null,null,"TRANSFERS (Lakhs)",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Show"]
[null,"Net annual",null,null,"Bucket 1","Bucket 2",null,"Bucket 3",null,"Bucket 4",null,null,"Bucket 5",null,"Bucket 1","Bucket 2","Bucket 3","Bucket 4","Bucket 5",null,"Bucket 2",null,"Bucket 3",null,"Bucket 4",null,"Bucket 5",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Hide"]
[null,"expenses",null,null,"Fixed","Debt Fund",null,"Hybrid",null,"Large-cap",null,null,"Mid/Small ",null,"Fixed","Debt Fund","Hybrid","Large-cap","Mid/Small ",null,"Debt Fund",null,"Hybrid",null,"Large-cap",null,"Mid/Small Cap"]
[null,"that will be ",null,null,"(eg. FDs)",null,null,"Bal. Fund",null,"Stocks/MF",null,null,"Stocks/MF",null,"(eg. FDs)",null,"Bal. Fund","Stocks/MF","Stocks/MF",null,null,null,"Balanced Fund",null,"Stocks/MF",null,"Stocks/MF",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Bucket 2"]
[null,"covered",null,null," Income",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Cap",null," Income",null,null,null,"Cap",null,"Transfers to",null,"Transfers to",null,"Transfers to",null,"Transfers to",null,null,"Year",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Bucket 3",null,null,"Bucket","sys wit","sys wit","Your corpus","B2",null,"B3",null,"B4",null,"B5"]
["Year","by corpus",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Bucket 1","Bucket 3","Bucket 1","Bucket 2","Bucket 1","Bucket 2","Bucket 1","Bucket 2",null,"Year",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Bucket 4",null,null,"strategy","avg ret","rand ret",null,null,"CAGR",null,"CAGR",null,"CAGR",null,"CAGR"]
[0,{"$f":"(prepen1*(1+rinf)^A12/100000)-(pension/100000)-(income*(1+incrate)^A12/100000)","v":4.1000000000000005},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"ROUND(Inputs!F19*Inputs!B20,0)/100000","v":84},{"$f":"ROUND(Inputs!F21*Inputs!B20,0)/100000","v":16.8},{"$f":"ROUND(Inputs!B20*Inputs!F22,0)/100000","v":33.6},{"$f":"ROUND(Inputs!B20*Inputs!F23,0)/100000","v":16.8},{"$f":"ROUND(Inputs!F24*Inputs!B20,0)/100000","v":16.8},null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Bucket 5",null,null,{"$f":"Inputs!B20/100000","v":168},{"$f":"(Inputs!B20)/100000","v":168},{"$f":"Inputs!B20/100000","v":168},{"$f":"(Inputs!B20)/100000","v":168},1,null,1,null,1,null,1]
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[2,4.4360000000000008,null,0.06,0.06,0.10704740979261655,0.10704740979261655,0.28082959471747093,0.28082959471747093,-0.17242105462822724,-0.17242105462822724,-0.58860937437913796,-0.58860937437913796,null,{"$f":"ROUND((O13-B14+U13+W13+Y13+AA13)*(1+D14),0)","v":85},{"$f":"ROUND((P13-U13-V13+IF(trans3=\"bucket 2\",X13)+IF(trans4=\"bucket 2\",Z13)+IF(trans5=\"bucket 2\",AB13))*(1+F14),0)","v":20},37,23,13,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,2,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"(1+alloc1*Simulator!E14+alloc2*Simulator!F14+alloc3*Simulator!H14+alloc4*Simulator!J14+alloc5*Simulator!M14)","v":1.0207676170220192},{"$f":"IF(SUM($AM$13:AM13)<>0,0,IF(O14<0,B14-O13,0))","v":0},{"$f":"IF(AM14<>0,A14,0)","v":0},null,null,null,{"$f":"IF(AQ14<>0,IF(SUM(O14:S14)<0,NA(),SUM(O14:S14)),NA())","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},{"$error":"#N/A"},{"$f":"IF(AQ14<>0,IF((AT13-B14)*(1+alloc1*Simulator!E14+alloc2*Simulator!F14+alloc3*Simulator!H14+alloc4*Simulator!J14+alloc5*Simulator!M14)<0,NA(),(AT13-B14)*(1+alloc1*Simulator!E14+alloc2*Simulator!F14+alloc3*Simulator!H14+alloc4*Simulator!J14+alloc5*Simulator!M14)),NA())","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},{"$error":"#N/A"},{"$f":"AV13*(1+F14)","v":1.2188436233042332},{"$error":"#DIV/0!"},{"$f":"AX13*(1+H14)","v":1.116222948961028},{"$f":"(AX14/$AX$12)^(1/AQ14)-1","v":{"$error":"#DIV/0!"}},{"$f":"AZ13*(1+J14)","v":1.3899562527480425},{"$f":"(AZ14/$AZ$12)^(1/AQ14)-1","v":{"$error":"#DIV/0!"}},{"$f":"BB13*(1+M14)","v":0.77296844541437326},{"$f":"(BB14/$BB$12)^(1/AQ14)-1","v":{"$error":"#DIV/0!"}}]
[3,4.7988800000000014,null,0.06,0.06,6.9817542821412948E-2,6.9817542821412948E-2,0.11144101623193822,0.11144101623193822,-9.5416854737174789E-2,-9.5416854737174789E-2,0.14413085499437106,0.14413085499437106,null,85,21,41,21,15,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,3,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"(1+alloc1*Simulator!E15+alloc2*Simulator!F15+alloc3*Simulator!H15+alloc4*Simulator!J15+alloc5*Simulator!M15)","v":1.0641413575542484},{"$f":"IF(SUM($AM$13:AM14)<>0,0,IF(O15<0,B15-O14,0))","v":0},0,"Bucket 2",null,null,{"$error":"#N/A"},{"$error":"#N/A"},{"$f":"IF(AQ15<>0,IF((AT14-B15)*(1+alloc1*Simulator!E15+alloc2*Simulator!F15+alloc3*Simulator!H15+alloc4*Simulator!J15+alloc5*Simulator!M15)<0,NA(),(AT14-B15)*(1+alloc1*Simulator!E15+alloc2*Simulator!F15+alloc3*Simulator!H15+alloc4*Simulator!J15+alloc5*Simulator!M15)),NA())","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},{"$error":"#N/A"},1.3039402901668826,{"$error":"#DIV/0!"},1.2406159687346558,{"$error":"#DIV/0!"},1.2573309988885548,{"$error":"#DIV/0!"},0.88437704833561659,{"$error":"#DIV/0!"}]
[4,5.1907904000000009,null,0.06,0.06,0.10884982130288631,0.10884982130288631,-7.7924392561314837E-2,-7.7924392561314837E-2,-8.1657543547562716E-2,-8.1657543547562716E-2,-0.19687382434416362,-0.19687382434416362,null,85,23,38,19,12,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,4,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"(1+alloc1*Simulator!E16+alloc2*Simulator!F16+alloc3*Simulator!H16+alloc4*Simulator!J16+alloc5*Simulator!M16)","v":0.99744696682885303},{"$f":"IF(SUM($AM$13:AM15)<>0,0,IF(O16<0,B16-O15,0))","v":0},0,"Bucket 4",null,null,{"$error":"#N/A"},{"$error":"#N/A"},{"$f":"IF(AQ16<>0,IF((AT15-B16)*(1+alloc1*Simulator!E16+alloc2*Simulator!F16+alloc3*Simulator!H16+alloc4*Simulator!J16+alloc5*Simulator!M16)<0,NA(),(AT15-B16)*(1+alloc1*Simulator!E16+alloc2*Simulator!F16+alloc3*Simulator!H16+alloc4*Simulator!J16+alloc5*Simulator!M16)),NA())","v":{"$error":"#N/A"}},{"$error":"#N/A"},1.4458739577411817,{"$error":"#DIV/0!"},1.1439417229691407,{"$error":"#DIV/0!"},1.154660438093112,{"$error":"#DIV/0!"},0.71026635666758042,{"$error":"#DIV/0!"}]
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{"sheet":"Read me whenever!","index":4,"n_rows":34,"n_cols":10,"rows_kept":34,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["Background and Motivation"]
["Mr. P V Subramanyam (subramoney.com) introduced the idea of retirement buckets and urged me to a build a calculator. When I looked around for"]
["what was available I first ound a terrific free version offered by ISG Planning (and stopped looking!)"]
["This simulator is inspired by and influenced by the free Investment Income Simulator available at ",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"ISG Planning"]
["That said the simulator has been bulit independently from the ground-up. Why do this when something is already available for free? I believe my version offers "]
["additional flexibility and features. These include: "]
["1. an extra investment bucket with information on how long the initial allocation to bucket 1 will last."]
["2. a standard retirment calculator and comparison with the bucket stratergy"]
["3. Choice of defining the volatility in each bucket"]
["4. Choice of including annuity and additonal income"]
["Some useful features in the ISG version are not (yet!) available. There are also some differences. For example:"]
["a. Correlation among the different kind of stocks"]
["b. Dividends from stocks is not considered"]
["c. The exact nature of the Monte Carlo simulation used by ISG is not known. I have simply used random returns that obey a Normal distribution without any averaging"]
["Sometimes the random returns may not reflect historic market trends. As this is only a informative and practice tool I don't intende to change this unless there is interest from users"]
["d. Of course the ISG version is way more better looking and user friendly than mine. However I am not going to lose sleep over this."]
["I made this calculator because I  believe diversification (ie. Additional buckets) with a wide range in volatility maybe necessary to combat high inflation rates that prevail in India. "]
[]
["Remember: This is a work in progress. I have tried this out several times to weed out errors. No guarantees can however be made that it is error free. If you find a bug kindly bring it to my notice."]
[]
["Is it correct to use software to predict market returns? Is the math behind this a proven one? "]
["I don't care! Forgive me for soudning a tad irresponsible. This is the only stand to take when there is no universal agreement on which model "]
["(Monte Carlo or Historical) to use for returns and which distribution to use or whether to use one at all!"]
["This is a practice tool and not a calculator. It models a situation with different volatilites and prepares you for handling your retirement corpus."]
["The more times you play it the better you get. This is not a tool that claims to mimic market conditions. I don't think any toolmaker can make that claim"]
["The bottomline: My idea of making this calculator is to introduce a technique which if used properly might (only might) be a more"]
["efficient way of managing a retirement corpus. Is this suitable for everyone? Unfortunately no. Some experience in at least handling mutual fund investments maybe necessary."]
["A financial planner with experience in handling retirment buckets would certainly help. Finding one is another matter"]
[]
[]
["Note on error: \"You don't have enough funds in Bucket 5 to make this transfer! If didn't want to make a transfer please see the 'Notes' sheet!\""]
["If you got this error and didn't want to make a transfer it means that the returns next year will wipe out the balance in the concerned bucket!"]
["As of now you don’t have a choice but to start all over again. You could of course transfer the balance and proceed. The error will go away but"]
["that is like predicting the future and hence cheating!"]