AutoGPT is an open-source Python code using Open AI’s GPT4. Unlike ChatGPT, which requires human intervention at every step, AutoGPT can “self-prompt” and find additional information from its knowledge base or the web (depending on the application). It is supposed to be a step towards artificial general intelligence. They are also referred to as Task-Driven Autonomous Agents.
Earlier, we pointed out that ChatGPT can be a game changer in personal finance and will change the nature of investment advisory or financial planning. Regular readers may know that we are trying or training various GPT-based chatbots on freefincal articles (links in the above-mentioned article). An account of our efforts and thoughts was recently mentioned in the Economic Times: Investing via ChatGPT: How AI empowers individuals and institutions to navigate financial markets.
At the time of writing, we are aware of three places one can try out AutoGPT or something similar. Both require an API key from Open AI and will cost a few dollars for each task.
- godmode.space This can surf the web but will require the user to approve each step it wishes to take. This can get annoying pretty soon. For the questions we put, we were not confident that it was making logical progress.
- AgentGPT This cannot surf the web as of now, and we have options to use either GPT 3.5 or GPT 4 (considerably more expensive but more recent and accurate). GPT 4 API access requires one to be on a waitlist. We used GPT 4. The best part is no human intervention is necessary, but the worst part is even after completing the task (or one version of it), the code keeps going! So if you leave it on and forget about it, you will lose money! The retirement planning transcript below uses this app.
- BabyAGI This can access the web. We have not tried this.
- cognosys.ai This can browse the web and does a pretty good job. We tried this only after the article was scheduled for publication (I can’t keep up with all the AI news!). So the transcripts for retirement planning and “best mutual funds” are linked in the appendix. This shuts down on its own and fast!
This is a Twitter thread on some AutoGPT use cases. These are still in early beta and require a lot of kinks to be ironed out. However, I have seen enough evidence that this will be the future of investment advisory. It will be conversational or casual. Users can ask questions in normal English, and the bot will understand what needs to be done and iteratively comes up with a technical answer.
Will the answer always be right? Of that, there is no guarantee, but the results in a well-established space like financial planning are pretty impressive.
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From robo advisory (with human-set rules), we are poised to move towards AI advisory (with code-set rules). Rules here refer to paths and diversions the advisory would take.
We do not claim this is going to happen overnight. There are a lot of issues to be set right. However, we must appreciate that this is a pretty strong possibility.
It is only a matter of time before AutoGPT learns day trading (if not already done by some!). We can let it loose on the markets subject to several stop-loss conditions in place.
Retirement Planning with AutoGPT
We started with GodMode and asked it, “Help me plan for retirement”. It assumed I was in the US and kept asking me to approve its choices of websites to learn from. I then asked, “Help me plan for retirement in India using websites in India”. The searches were a lot more relevant but not making enough progress. The repeated need-to-approve steps got to me, and I gave up on the app.
So I moved to AgentGPT, and this time I decided to be more specific (but not too specific). We will start with attempt 2. This ended quickly (but the app kept running iterations, so it needs to be shut down else we will bleed API costs). The output of attempt 1 is much longer (as the question is vaguer) and is placed in the appendix for those interested.
Attempt 2: You are PatGPT (as in pattu-GPT, a name suggested by a member of the Facebook Group Asan Ideas for Wealth). Help me plan for retirement in India. I want you to search only sites based in India or covering investing rules in India. I am 35 years old and wish to retire by age 55. My monthly expenses are Rs. 75,000. Fill in the rest of the details on your own and find out the corpus I need for retirement and how much I should save for it each month.
AutoGPT Retirement Planning Transcript for Attempt 2
- Thinking…(Restart if this takes more than 30 seconds)
- Added task:1. Search Indian websites for accurate investment options and inflation rate in the country.
- Added task:2. Calculate the required retirement corpus based on current expenses, age, and desired retirement age.
- Added task:3. Determine the monthly savings needed to achieve the retirement corpus.
- Thinking…(Restart if this takes more than 30 seconds)
- Executing “1. Search Indian websites for accurate investment options and inflation rate in the country.”
- After searching for investment options and the average inflation rate in India on reliable websites, I have found the following information:
- The average inflation rate in India for the past 10 years has been around 6%.
- Some common investment options in India include mutual funds, stocks, bonds, fixed deposits, and PPF (Public Provident Fund).
- Based on your age and desired retirement age, you have 20 years to save and invest for your retirement. To calculate the corpus required for retirement and the monthly savings needed, I will consider the following assumptions:
- Post-retirement, your monthly expenses will remain the same, adjusted for inflation.
- The expected annual return on investments will be 8%.
- Calculating the corpus needed for retirement:
- Future value of monthly expenses (inflation-adjusted) = Current monthly expenses * (1 + inflation rate) ^ years left to retire Future value of monthly expenses = Rs. 75,000 * (1 + 6%) ^ 20 Future value of monthly expenses = Rs. 227,509
- Assuming you need this amount every month for 25 years post-retirement and considering an annual investment return of 8% after retirement:
- Corpus required = Future value of monthly expenses * ((1 – (1 + annual return on investment) ^ -number of years in retirement) / annual return on investment) Corpus required = Rs. 227,509 * ((1 – (1 + 8%) ^ -25) / 8%) Corpus required ≈ Rs. 3,82,44,803
- Calculating the monthly amount you need to save:
- Monthly savings = Corpus required * (annual return on investment / ((1 + annual return on investment) ^ years left to retire – 1)) Monthly savings = Rs. 3,82,44,803 * (8% / ((1 + 8%) ^ 20 – 1)) Monthly savings ≈ Rs. 54,046
- To achieve your retirement goal, you need a corpus of approximately Rs. 3,82,44,803 by the age of 55. To reach this goal, you should save and invest around Rs. 54,046 per month for the next 20 years, considering an 8% annual return on investments.
- Thinking…(Restart if this takes more than 30 seconds)
- Task marked as complete!
- Thinking…(Restart if this takes more than 30 seconds)
- The agent has been manually shutdown.
Now, that may not be perfect, but it is pretty impressive! Notice the information (assumptions) it found on its own. Just imagine the possibilities if the agent’s training dataset is quite specific. Its accuracy will improve, and can churn out a full financial plan in under a minute.
As mentioned in the article mentioned at the top of the post, AutoGPT can be used for no-code financial planning. You give it a knowledgebase (just articles with math, tables etc.) to train on, and it can churn out a financial plan based on user inputs.
Of course, it needs to stop and ask for additional outputs, but this can be sorted out. AI advisory can be set up using a third-party app way faster than a robo advisory. Will it be less expensive, though? More work is necessary to answer this.
A human advisor can set up an AI advisory based on her idiosyncrasies. Clients can converse with the bot to get any number of answers to relevant questions. The human can free up more of her time and increase income. All with just an app subscription (this is not yet available, but it is only a matter of time). The future of investment advisory is conversational and casual.
Appendix
(1) Attempt 1: You are PatGPT. Help me plan for retirement in India. I want you to search only sites based in India or covering investing rules in India. I am 35 years old and wish to retire by age 55. I can save about 50% of my monthly expenses. My risk appetite is moderate.
This question has less information than the second attempt, but the results (again, not perfect) are still impressive.
AutoGPT Retirement Planning Transcript for Attempt 1 This is a large text file (will open in a browser) with about 14,000-plus words! But it is still an interesting read! It has a detailed asset allocation plan.
(2) Cognosys-autogpt-retirement-planning transcript
(3) Cognosys _best mutual funds in India_ transcript.
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