Sebi-registered investment advisor Abhishek Kumar offers a balanced, data-driven perspective on a social media post that claimed index funds are “guaranteed” to underperform the market.
About the author: Abhishek is part of a freefincal’s curated list of fee-only financial advisors and a fee-only India member. He can be contacted via his website, sahajmoney.com.
The “Guaranteed Underperformance” Myth
The assertion that index funds are “guaranteed” to underperform their benchmarks due to expense ratios and tracking errors reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature and purpose of passive investing. While it’s true that index funds incur certain costs, this doesn’t translate to guaranteed underperformance in the way many investors understand it.
Index funds are designed to replicate, not outperform, their benchmark indices. The slight underperformance due to expenses is a feature, not a bug, of passive investing. According to recent data, Indian index funds typically have expense ratios ranging from 0.11% to 0.50%, significantly lower than actively managed funds which can charge 0.5% to 2.5% annually.
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In a pari-mutuel system—such as horse racing or, by analogy, certain segments of the stock market—the operator (or market maker) takes a commission, and the remaining pool is distributed among the bettors. This deduction is a frictional cost that must be covered before any net profit can be earned. The higher that cost, the lower the probability that a bettor will beat the house or market over time.
The Reality of Active vs. Passive Performance
The SPIVA India Scorecard for 2024 reveals compelling data that challenges the superiority of active management:
- 60% of large-cap active funds underperformed their benchmarks over one year
- 75% underperformed over three years
- 93% underperformed over five years
- 74% underperformed over ten years
Even more striking, in the mid/small-cap segment, 88% of active funds underperformed over the 10-year period. These figures paint a starkly different picture from the narrative that active management consistently delivers superior results.
Understanding Tracking Error: Context Matters
Tracking error, often cited as a weakness of index funds, needs proper context. Research shows that index funds naturally have tracking errors due to liquidity constraints and the complexity of replicating indices.
However, this doesn’t automatically make active funds superior. The tracking error should be compared to the alpha generation of active funds, which has proven inconsistent. Studies indicate that even when active managers outperform, they rarely do so consistently across multiple periods.
Warren Buffett once quipped, “A horse that can count to ten is a remarkable horse—not a remarkable mathematician.” Likewise, when an investor backs an active fund and it beats its benchmark over a single period, the result is a remarkable performance, not a remarkable talent; the real test is whether the fund can repeat that success consistently across multiple periods.
The Cost Factor: Beyond Expense Ratios
The focus on index fund expense ratios overlooks the broader cost structure of active management. Beyond the visible expense ratios, active funds incur:
- Higher transaction costs from frequent trading
- Hidden costs from market impact of large transactions
- Opportunity costs from cash holdings during market rallies
Research shows that when comparing index funds to actively managed funds, about 61% of active funds underperformed even after accounting for these additional costs.
The Probability Game: Skill vs. Luck
One of the most significant misconceptions is the belief that investors can consistently identify the minority of active funds that will outperform. Data from various studies suggests that only 10-20% of active funds consistently beat their benchmarks over extended periods.
More importantly, there’s little persistence in performance. Meaning that active funds that outperform in one period often underperform in subsequent periods. The cyclical nature of fund performance means that chasing past winners often leads to buying high and selling low, significantly eroding returns.
The Diversification Advantage
Index funds provide instant diversification across multiple stocks, sectors, and market capitalizations. This diversification comes at a fraction of the cost of assembling a similar portfolio through active management. While active funds may occasionally outperform in specific market conditions, they also carry the risk of significant underperformance, especially during broad market rallies.
A Balanced Approach
Rather than viewing this as an either/or decision, investors should consider a core-satellite approach:
- Core holdings in low-cost index funds provide market returns with minimal tracking error
- Satellite positions in carefully selected active funds can potentially add alpha
- Risk management through diversification across both strategies
The Evidence-Based Conclusion
The overwhelming evidence suggests that for most investors, index funds offer a superior risk-adjusted return profile over the long term. While active management might have its place, particularly in less efficient market segments, the notion that index funds are “guaranteed” to underperform ignores the substantial body of evidence showing that the majority of active funds fail to justify their higher costs.
The key insight is that consistency matters more than occasional outperformance. Index funds provide predictable, market-matching returns at low cost, while active funds offer the possibility of outperformance at the risk of significant underperformance. For most investors, the former represents a more prudent approach to long-term wealth creation.
The debate between active and passive investing will undoubtedly continue, but the data consistently supports a passive-first approach, with active management playing a complementary role rather than serving as the primary investment strategy.
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