A list of stocks that have traded close to their “all-time” high

Here is a list of stocks that have traded close to their all-time high and how it correlates with returns. This can be seen as an alternative low volatility strategy while picking stocks.  Readers may recall that this is an ongoing exploration of studying low volatility stocks and lazy investing – See Aug 2018 lazy portfolio updates and 30 Low Volatility Stocks from Nifty 100: Aug 2018

To understand why this works, see: Picking Stocks With Low Volatility: A simple, but effective strategy? This post is inspired by a talk given by Mr. Senthil Kumar, trading new highs, at the TamilNadu Investors Association. He talked about how good companies often trade near their lifetime high (price) and one should not shy away from buying them. I cannot agree more.

max cover - A list of stocks that have traded close to their "all-time" high

If we agree that the market decides what a stock is worth, no matter what the balance sheets say, then a stock that trades close to its price maximum has to be a “good stock”. Not only that, it is also a low volatile stock. Here we are defining volatility as a deviation from price maximum instead of using the standard deviation of monthly returns as used here.

Therefore I think we should look closely at such stocks and hence this list. To prepare this list, I have used the Automated Earnings Power Stock Analysis With Screener.in data excel template and ran it over the current list of Nifty 100 – hundred stocks with highest market capitalization.

The price history from Jan 1st 2000 was retrieved and the number of times the price traded (a) at or above the current maximum (b) at or above within 5% of current maximum (lower side) and (c) at or above within 10% of current maximum was computed.

For example for case (a)  suppose there are 250 trading days in a year. We find out for how many of these days the price was at or above the price maximum (in this period). So say this is for 20 days.  So for 230 days, the stock traded below its maximum. The fraction of time the price traded at/above max = 20/230 = 8.7%

For case (b) we find the no of days the stock traded at or above max discounted by 5%. That is max(1-5%) and for (c) this will be max(1-10%). Dividing this number by the total number of trading days available, we can find a consistency ratio. Then we plot the annualized return over this period against this ratio.

A total of 90 stocks were considered for this study. The rest (10) of them were too young. Out of these 65 stocks had a price history of 18+years, two 17+Y, three 16+Y, sixteen bet 10-15Y and three 8-9Y.

Standard deviation vs annualized return

The standard deviation of daily returns is in the above period is calculated. This tells us how much each return varies from the mean. This is a measure of volatility. Higher the standard deviation, the higher the price will move up and down. There is no correlation between long-term standard deviation and long-term returns.

at max stdev - A list of stocks that have traded close to their "all-time" high

I do not and cannot read too much into this except to say that the standard deviation cannot be used further, at least in this study.

Trading at or above price maximum vs annualized returns

This is a stringent requirement, so the stock will trade at or above current maximum only for a few days and dividing this by total no of trading days will give a few per cent

A list of stocks that have traded close to their "all-time" high

Even then, there is a reasonable correlation with the returns.

Trading at or above within 5% of price maximum vs annualized returns

5 percent stdev - A list of stocks that have traded close to their "all-time" high

Trading at or above within 10% of price maximum vs annualized returns

10 percent stdev - A list of stocks that have traded close to their "all-time" high

Clearly, stocks that have traded close to their maximum have given good returns. Now, please don’t say “that is obvious”. The question I seek to answer here, can we create a shortlist of such stocks for investing? 

Before you start talking about “hindsight bias” and all that sort of thing, every piece of information that is used for stock analysis is hindsight bias. Instead of looking at a balance sheet, we are evaluating the stocks in the court of public opinion – market.

Clearly, a stock that does not fall much from the maximum implies that the company has been a profitable one and investor believe that it will continue to do so. In my opinion, there is nothing inferior in using this idea. Of course,  the “past performance disclaimer” will naturally apply.

A bigger question that I wish to answer and for which a lot more work is necessary is: can I use only this idea to buy stocks?  So I will continue to explore this idea in the coming weeks.

Another question that I wish to answer is: If we look at a stock that has traded close to its max for the last 18Y, was this the case right from the start, say over a 3Y window? If so, can this not be a method to spot potential multi-baggers? Again, I will dig deeper.

My method of stock analysis might sound laughable and primitive to many, but hey who cares? They are not paying my bills. One caveat that needs to be kept in mind though. If a stock that has traded close to its maximum for 10Y+ years, then it must be a multi-bagger. So it should be expensive (unless it has split several times).

The fundamental point I have been trying to make with these low volatility stock posts and lazy investing posts is that there is absolutely nothing wrong in buying an expensive stock of a good business. You may not get 45% returns going forward, buy in the normal course of events you should get inflation-beating returns. So what? Everyone is going to die anyway and none of these gains are coming with us then.

List of Top 25 stocks that have traded close to their “all-time” high

They have been arranged alphabetically. You can download the list in Excel format below.

Within 5% or aboveWithin 10% or aboveAt or above max
ASIANPAINTASIANPAINTASIANPAINT
BAJAJ-AUTOBAJAJ-AUTOAxis Bank Ltd.
BAJFINANCEBAJFINANCEBAJFINANCE
BOSCHLTDBOSCHLTDBOSCHLTD
BRITANNIACOLPALBRITANNIA
DABURDABURCadila Healthcare
EICHERMOTEICHERMOTDABUR
GODREJCPGODREJCPEICHERMOT
HAVELLSHAVELLSHAVELLS
HDFCHDFCHDFCBANK
HDFCBANKHDFCBANKHindustan Zinc
INDUSINDBKINDUSINDBKHDFC
ITCITCI T C Ltd.
KOTAKBANKKOTAKBANKINDUSINDBK
LUPINLUPINKOTAKBANK
MARICOMARICOLUPIN
MARUTIMARUTIMARICO
MOTHERSUMIMOTHERSUMIMOTHERSUMI
PGHHPGHHPIDILITIND
PIDILITINDPIDILITINDReliance Industries Ltd.
SHREECEMSHREECEMSHREECEM
SUNPHARMASUNPHARMAShriram Transport Finance
TCSTCSSUNPHARMA
ULTRACEMCOULTRACEMCOTitan Company Ltd.
YESBANKYESBANKUPL Ltd.

Download the list of stocks that have traded close to their “all-time” high

Want to conduct a sales-free "basics of money management" session in your office?
I conduct free seminars to employees or societies. Only the very basics and getting-started steps are discussed (no scary math):For example: How to define financial goals, how to save tax with a clear goal in mind; How to use a credit card for maximum benefit; When to buy a house; How to start investing; where to invest; how to invest for and after retirement etc. depending on the audience. If you are interested, you can contact me: freefincal [at] Gmail [dot] com. I can do the talk via conferencing software, so there is no cost for your company. If you want me to travel, you need to cover my airfare (I live in Chennai)

Connect with us on social media


Do check out my books


You Can Be Rich Too with Goal-Based Investing

My first book is now available at a 35% discount for Rs. 258. It comes with nine online calculators. Get it now.  The Kindle edition is only Rs. 199.

Gamechanger: Forget Startups, Join Corporate & Still Live the Rich Life You Want

My second book is now only Rs 199 (Kindle Rs. 99) Get it or gift it to a youngearner

The ultimate guide to travel by Pranav Surya

Travel-Training-Kit-Cover This is a deep dive analysis into vacation planning, finding cheap flights, budget accommodation, what to do when travelling, how travelling slowly is better financially and psychologically with links to the web pages and hand-holding at every step.  Get the pdf for ₹199 (instant download)

Create a "from start to finish" financial plan with this free robo advisory software template


Free Apps for your Android Phone

All calculators from our book, “You can be Rich Too” are now available on Google Play!
Install Financial Freedom App! (Google Play Store)
Install Freefincal Retirement Planner App! (Google Play Store)
Find out if you have enough to say "FU" to your employer (Google Play Store)

About Freefincal

Freefincal has open-source, comprehensive Excel spreadsheets, tools, analysis and unbiased, conflict of interest-free commentary on different aspects of personal finance and investing. If you find the content useful, please consider supporting us by (1) sharing our articles and (2) disabling ad-blockers for our site if you are using one. We do not accept sponsored posts, links or guest posts request from content writers and agencies.

Blog Comment Policy

Your thoughts are vital to the health of this blog and are the driving force behind the analysis and calculators that you see here. We welcome criticism and differing opinions. I will do my very best to respond to all comments asap. Please do not include hyperlinks or email ids in the comment body. Such comments will be moderated and I reserve the right to delete the entire comment or remove the links before approving them.

One thought on “A list of stocks that have traded close to their “all-time” high

  1. Isn’t this effected by survivorship bias? We are considering stocks which are in N100 today and comparing their previous returns based on some criteria.

Comments are closed.