Last Updated on May 6, 2020 at 9:45 am
This is the April 2020 momentum, low volatility stock screener for 100 stocks from the Nifty 100. Inside, you also get an Rs. 1000 off, discounted link to the lectures on goal-based portfolio management. This month only 5 stocks quality (down from 15 last month) after filtering Nifty 100 with (1) positive 1-year return, (2) positive six-month return, (3) price > 200-day moving average, (4) 50% of daily positive returns, (5) lowest volatility. Last month only 15 stocks qualified.
What is momentum investing? Invest in stocks that have moved up considerably over the past 6-12 months hoping that the trend will continue into the future (for a short period). Relevant data and links for the Indian and US markets are discussed here: Momentum Stock Investing in India: Does it work?.
What is low volatility investing? Low volatility investing refers to identifying stocks with low price fluctuations and investing in them. Again this is based on past evidence: Low volatility stock investing: Does it work? Higher returns at lower risk?
There is a close connection between momentum investing and low volatility. In fact, most momentum stock-picking strategies also include a way to filter out stocks based on volatility. They prefer stocks that have moved up in the past (= momentum) with low volatility. Another idea that is closely related is to hunt for stocks that have stayed close to their all-time price highs.
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Warning
Whether you choose stocks with momentum or low volatility or both, it is important to recognize when to sell the stocks. This kind of trend following requires serious levels of discipline and commitment. You should be able to buy a stock without question and sell it without question in a short period of time if it no longer has enough momentum and/or low volatility. If you get distracted by the valuation of the stocks, their ROE etc and hesitate or buy more than necessary it will not work. Please do not blindly use this list to buy and clutter your portfolio. This list will evolve in method with time. So be prepared for this. Do your own research about momentum and low volatility investing!!
Momentum Investing in India
You can watch this video version of the above-linked post to get an introduction to momentum investing
Low Volatility Investing in India
Suppose p1 is the previous day closing price and p2 is today’s closing price. Daily return is defined as (p2-p1)/p1. This is the percentage change in price. When we compute the standard deviation of these daily returns, we assume that they fall on a bell curve. This is wrong. The next better step would be to assume that the log return defined as log (p2) – log(p1) falls on a bell curve.
This is also not an accurate approximation as market returns are fractal in nature. However, this is a closer approximation. So for creating low volatility indices, the standard deviation of log returns are used. However, there is not much of a difference for the present case and you could use just the ordinary standard deviation.
Why should returns fall on a bell curve? If they do not, then both the “average” and “standard deviation” have no meaning!!
How to use this screener?
You can use it in multiple ways. Here are some suggestions.
To screen for low volatility stocks
- Sort by an increasing standard deviation
- Ensure returns over the last 6 months and 1Y are positive with a good amount of positive daily returns.
- Choose stocks with the lowest volatility
To screen for momentum stocks
- Remove stocks with negative 6 months AND 1Y returns
- Remove stocks with 50% or lower positive daily returns
- Remove stocks with a current price lower than last 200-day average
- Sort remaining stocks by increasing standard deviation.
- Choose stocks with low volatility and high momentum (high 6 month or 1Y returns).
Note: Frequent trading may be necessary for both approaches. If in the next month’s screener, the stock does not meet the above criteria, you will have to sell in full and replace by another regardless of tax. As mentioned above, last months history is provided with this months sheet. I shall continue to add to this history in subsequent months.
Important Information
- This screener (April 2020) costs Rs. 111
- Inside, you get a discounted link to the lectures on goal-based portfolio management.
- The cost of Rs. 111 is only for the April 2020 screener and only for the data in the sheet.
- While I will do my best to publish updated screener sheets each month, I cannot guarantee the same.
- The file does not contain any buy or sell recommendations and only has data derived from price information. The stocks chosen are merely members of the Nifty 100 as on March-end 2020.
- Enough care and effort have been put in to weed out errors, however, I cannot guarantee that the sheet is free of error.
- The buyer will have to do their own research with regard to using the information in the spreadsheet. No recommendations or assistance is included in the sheet and will not be provided separately
- I will not provide any further help or assistance in using the sheet
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