Statements like, “Our analysis shows that, over the long term, the stock market shows poor returns for only two out of every ten periods. This means that the probability of losing money is quite small”, are wrong. You cannot, well, must not associate probabilities with stock market returns. Just because one has two numbers –…

I recently tested several risk profilers available online to Indian DIY investors. Most of them, I realised, are built to sell rather than to help. I didn’t set out to write this. I was just trying to find a decent risk-profiling tool for myself as part of my research for NISM Retirement Advisor preparation. The…

A reader asks, “Should I choose an outperformer or underperformer for rebalancing my portfolio?” The primary objective of portfolio rebalancing is risk reduction. We remove some funds from an asset class that is performing well and shift it to another asset class. Typically, this is done through equity to fixed income or vice versa. So…

In a previous study published on freefincal, we showed that the Nifty 200 Momentum 30’s apparent alpha largely disappears among high-turnover stocks, and survives only in the illiquid half. The natural follow-up question is: is this a momentum-specific quirk, or does Scaled Turnover reshape other factor premia as well? Is Scaled Turnover a Universal Filter…

As many are aware, all Government employees who have joined service on or after January 1st, 2004, are covered under the National Pension System (NPS). While the NPS definitely has the word “pension” in its name, it isn’t really a pension scheme, and if you are covered under the NPS, please do understand what the…

As I write this, the Sensex is back where it was a little over two years ago. For most young people who started investing in the last few years, this could be their longest “bear market”. Congratulations. As expected, doubt has begun to creep into several investors’ minds. Should I exit? Should I pause investing?…

A reader says he is 52 and wants to retire in three years and “needs a minimum of 1.5 Lakhs per month for the next 15 years”. He needs to know the total corpus required. There are a couple of issues here that need to be addressed.  We shall assume that the current expenses are…

Momentum investing has become one of the most talked-about factor strategies in India. The headline numbers are attractive — Nifty 200 Momentum 30 backtests often show 14–15% CAGR, and AMC momentum funds have seen rapid AUM growth. But a 19-year NSE backtest raises an uncomfortable question: is the momentum premium real, or is it simply…

A frequent criticism by those who encounter freefincal articles or videos is, “This guy is very pessimistic about equity investing”. I also often get asked why that is the case. Please allow me to explain. There is a difference between lack of faith and pessimism. If I lack belief in equity, I will not go…

The freefincal low volatility and momentum stock screener (based on BSE 500 and BSE 100 stocks published since Jan 2020) has just received major upgrades. In this article, we list the major changes. What is low-volatility investing? Low-volatility investing refers to identifying stocks with low price volatility and investing in them. Again, this is based on…

I argue why we should use a personal inflation rate while planning for retirement. My family’s inflation rate was about 8% some years back – Inflation in India: Some Real Numbers. So, that was the rate I started with when planning for retirement. Eight per cent before and after retirement. Then, as our economy grew,…

On Feb 26th 2026, SEBI updated its Categorisation and Rationalisation of Mutual Fund Schemes, introducing a new category -life cycle funds. We discuss whether it makes sense for investors to consider these funds. The formal definition of life cycle funds is, “An open-ended fund with attributes of predetermined maturity and glide path for goal-based investing”. …

Here is how you can be a successful equity mutual fund investor. This also applies to the long-term direct equity (stock) investing. Understand the true nature of the stock market: All those stories of “compounding” that you have been fed do not pan out in real life. See: Don’t get fooled: Mutual funds have no…

Whenever I talk/write about the stock market and mutual funds, I get a lot of flak about how “discouraging” or “negative” I am. Even after all these years, I find it bizarre that despite the disclaimers and the warnings, people believe that simply staying invested in the markets will guarantee good returns.  And I am…

Readers often ask us, “I have a moderate risk appetite; how should I invest in mutual funds?” or “Which mutual funds should I choose with a moderate risk appetite”? “What does moderate risk appetite mean?” We cannot define in any meaningful way what risk appetite is, let alone categorize it as low, medium, or high. …