One of the biggest mistakes investors make is to neve visualise their portfolio as “big” in future. They assume their portfolio value will always be comparable to what they invest each month. This results in many misconceptions like, “I can rebalance my portfolio just by changing the amount I invest”, and “I can time the…

Many investors, even experienced ones do not understand what market timing is and if can co-exist with a SIP. These terms are explained for new investors in a simple manner.

Momentum investing is such a simple strategy that it could even invite ridiculing laughter. Yet, it works: Momentum Stock Investing in India: Does it work? Yesterday the Momentum, Low Volatility Stock Screener June 2019 was released. This allows you to screen for momentum stocks with low volatility (quality momentum) among the Nifty 100 stocks. In this post,…

It is well known that small cap stocks and therefore small cap mutual funds are high-risk instruments with potential high return. The small cap investor may feel like riding a roller coaster on Red bull – stupendous gains or losses over a short period, followed by years of no returns. So it is a natural choice…

As announced earlier, I will be publishing market analysis using long-term technical indicators from the time to time. In the Oct. 2018 edition, we discussed if we are in a bear market. Have things changed now? Let us find out using the Bollinger Bands. They are easy to use and understand for investors to spot long-term…

Are you interested in timing the market? Then here is how you can do it right. Please do not assume that buying on dips is market timing. It is delusional. In June 2018 I started a market timing aka tactical asset allocation series, and I was surprised by the reactions to it. Most people who…

Are we now in a bear market? Can we get an idea using long-term technical indicators? In my opinion, there are two robust ways to time the market for lowering investment risk: either use technical indicators/macroeconomic indicators or use a combination of both. Starting this month, I shall be publishing a market analysis based on both…

I discuss how to use how to time the market by spotting bullish and bearish trends with the moving average crossover. The idea is well known in technical analysis and involves two moving averages.  This is the 7th post in the series on tactical asset allocation (link to all posts). We had earlier considered market Timing With…

As pointed out yesterday, many investors get nervous when the market hits all-time highs on a daily basis and start asking “should I book profits now and re-enter later?”. Sadly, they only talk about the exit mark and have no idea when they would re-enter. It amounts to a random thought often influenced by what…

In the 6th part on the series on tactical asset allocation techniques based on market timing, we evaluate the Motilal Oswal Value Index (MOVI) over five-year vs ten-year periods. The MOVI index data is available at the Motilal Oswal website used a combination of  Nifty price to earnings ratio (PE), price to book value (PB) and dividend yield…

One thing is clear from this series on market timing. There is a lot of inertia when it comes to selling equity and moving to debt in the name of timing. Many seem to prefer “buying on dips”. That is whenever they “feel” there is a “buying opportunity”. So for the 4th part in this…