Are we now in a bear market? Market Analysis (October 2018)

Are we now in aĀ bear market? Can we get an idea using long-term technical indicators? In my opinion, there are two robust ways to time the market for lowering investment risk: either use technical indicators/macroeconomic indicators or use a combination of both. Starting this month, I shall be publishing a market analysis based on both…

Continue reading →

Timing the market by spotting bullish and bearish trends

I discuss how to use how to time the market by spotting bullish and bearish trends with theĀ moving average crossover. The idea is well known in technical analysis and involves two moving averages.Ā  This is the 7th post in the series on tactical asset allocationĀ (link to all posts). We had earlier considered market Timing With…

Continue reading →

Market Timing with the Motilal Oswal Value Index (MOVI)

In the 6th part on the series on tactical asset allocation techniques based on market timing, we evaluate theĀ Motilal Oswal Value Index (MOVI)Ā over five-year vs ten-year periods. The MOVI index data is available at the Motilal Oswal websiteĀ used a combination ofĀ  Nifty price to earnings ratio (PE), price to book value (PB) and dividend yield…

Continue reading →

Market Timing With Ten Month Moving Average: Tactical Asset Allocation Backtest Part 2

As mentioned last week, I am starting a new series on tactical asset allocation techniques based on market timing. In this first part, we looked at the index PE (price to earnings ratio) as a buy/sell signal. In the second part, weĀ consider the ten-month moving average (10 MMA) of the Index price. There are still…

Continue reading →