Are we now in a bear market? Market Analysis (October 2018)

Are we now in a¬†bear market? Can we get an idea using long-term technical indicators? In my opinion, there are two robust ways to time the market for lowering investment risk: either use technical indicators/macroeconomic indicators or use a combination of both. Starting this month, I shall be publishing a market analysis based on both…

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Timing the market by spotting bullish and bearish trends

I discuss how to use how to time the market by spotting bullish and bearish trends with the¬†moving average crossover. The idea is well known in technical analysis and involves two moving averages.¬† This is the 7th post in the series on tactical asset allocation¬†(link to all posts). We had earlier considered market Timing With…

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Market Timing with the Motilal Oswal Value Index (MOVI)

In the 6th part on the series on tactical asset allocation techniques based on market timing, we evaluate the¬†Motilal Oswal Value Index (MOVI)¬†over five-year vs ten-year periods. The MOVI index data is available at the Motilal Oswal website¬†used a combination of¬† Nifty price to earnings ratio (PE), price to book value (PB) and dividend yield…

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Market Timing With Ten Month Moving Average: Tactical Asset Allocation Backtest Part 2

As mentioned last week, I am starting a new series on tactical asset allocation techniques based on market timing. In this first part, we looked at the index PE (price to earnings ratio) as a buy/sell signal. In the second part, we¬†consider the ten-month moving average (10 MMA) of the Index price. There are still…

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