I discuss how to use how to time the market by spotting bullish and bearish trends with the moving average crossover. The idea is well known in technical analysis and involves two moving averages.  This is the 7th post in the series on tactical asset allocation (link to all posts). We had earlier considered market Timing With…

As pointed out yesterday, many investors get nervous when the market hits all-time highs on a daily basis and start asking “should I book profits now and re-enter later?”. Sadly, they only talk about the exit mark and have no idea when they would re-enter. It amounts to a random thought often influenced by what…

In the 6th part on the series on tactical asset allocation techniques based on market timing, we evaluate the Motilal Oswal Value Index (MOVI) over five-year vs ten-year periods. The MOVI index data is available at the Motilal Oswal website used a combination of  Nifty price to earnings ratio (PE), price to book value (PB) and dividend yield…

One thing is clear from this series on market timing. There is a lot of inertia when it comes to selling equity and moving to debt in the name of timing. Many seem to prefer “buying on dips”. That is whenever they “feel” there is a “buying opportunity”. So for the 4th part in this…

In the third part on the series on tactical asset allocation techniques based on market timing, we evaluate the Market PE and Ten-month moving average methods over five-year vs ten-year periods and also change the equity allocation in the portfolio from 30% to 50% to 70%. In addition, we also use the method followed by Franklin…

As mentioned last week, I am starting a new series on tactical asset allocation techniques based on market timing. In this first part, we looked at the index PE (price to earnings ratio) as a buy/sell signal. In the second part, we consider the ten-month moving average (10 MMA) of the Index price. There are still…

I am starting a new series on tactical asset allocation techniques based on market timing. In this first part, we will look at the index PE (price to earnings ratio) as a signal. In this series, results from a backtest with Sensex and/or S&P 500 data will be presented and is one of the most…