Are we now in a bear market? Market Analysis (October 2018)

Are we now in a bear market? Can we get an idea using long-term technical indicators? In my opinion, there are two robust ways to time the market for lowering investment risk: either use technical indicators/macroeconomic indicators or use a combination of both. Starting this month, I shall be publishing a market analysis based on both … Continue reading Are we now in a bear market? Market Analysis (October 2018)

Timing the market by spotting bullish and bearish trends

I discuss how to use how to time the market by spotting bullish and bearish trends with the moving average crossover. The idea is well known in technical analysis and involves two moving averages.  This is the 7th post in the series on tactical asset allocation (link to all posts). We had earlier considered market Timing With … Continue reading Timing the market by spotting bullish and bearish trends

Should I book profit when the market is at an all-time high?

As pointed out yesterday, many investors get nervous when the market hits all-time highs on a daily basis and start asking "should I book profits now and re-enter later?". Sadly, they only talk about the exit mark and have no idea when they would re-enter. It amounts to a random thought often influenced by what … Continue reading Should I book profit when the market is at an all-time high?

Market Timing with the Motilal Oswal Value Index (MOVI)

In the 6th part on the series on tactical asset allocation techniques based on market timing, we evaluate the Motilal Oswal Value Index (MOVI) over five-year vs ten-year periods. The MOVI index data is available at the Motilal Oswal website used a combination of  Nifty price to earnings ratio (PE), price to book value (PB) and dividend yield … Continue reading Market Timing with the Motilal Oswal Value Index (MOVI)

Buying on market dips: How effective is it?

One thing is clear from this series on market timing. There is a lot of inertia when it comes to selling equity and moving to debt in the name of timing. Many seem to prefer "buying on dips". That is whenever they "feel" there is a "buying opportunity". So for the 4th part in this … Continue reading Buying on market dips: How effective is it?