Testing a double moving average market timing model with gold (Part 3)

We are studying the efficacy of a double moving average market timing model with different market indices.  We have already established that the model reasonably works (see links below) with Indian gilts, Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500. Our primary goal in this updated study is to illustrate market-specific risks and the sequence of returns…

Continue reading →

Testing a double moving average market timing model with S&P 500 (Part 2)

We are studying the efficacy of a double moving average market timing model with different stock market indices.  We have already established that the model reasonably works (see links below) across asset classes. Our primary goal in this updated study is to illustrate market-specific risks and the sequence of returns risk with market timing. It…

Continue reading →

Testing a double moving average market timing model (part 1): Nasdaq 100

Starting today, we will study the efficacy of a double moving average market timing model with different stock market indices.  We have already established that the model reasonably works (see links below) across asset classes. Our primary goal in this updated study is to illustrate market-specific risks and the sequence of returns risk with market…

Continue reading →

Is it possible to time entry and exit from gilt mutual funds for better returns?

In this article, we discuss the results of a tactical entry and exit strategy from gilt mutual funds and find out if it is more rewarding. Readers unfamiliar with gilt funds may consult our previous work: (1) FAQ on gilt mutual funds: essentials investors should know. (2) Gilt mutual funds will not protect your money! Recognize…

Continue reading →

If we invest only when the Nifty was “low” can we beat the market?

One of the biggest mistakes investors make is to neve visualise their portfolio as “big” in future. They assume their portfolio value will always be comparable to what they invest each month. This results in many misconceptions like, “I can rebalance my portfolio just by changing the amount I invest”, and “I can time the…

Continue reading →

Nifty Momentum Timing: Can it produce higher returns?

Momentum investing is such a simple strategy that it could even invite ridiculing laughter. Yet, it works: Momentum Stock Investing in India: Does it work? Yesterday the Momentum, Low Volatility Stock Screener June 2019 was released. This allows you to screen for momentum stocks with low volatility (quality momentum) among the Nifty 100 stocks. In this post,…

Continue reading →