If we invest only when the Nifty was “low” can we beat the market?

One of the biggest mistakes investors make is to neve visualise their portfolio as “big” in future. They assume their portfolio value will always be comparable to what they invest each month. This results in many misconceptions like, “I can rebalance my portfolio just by changing the amount I invest”, and “I can time the…

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Nifty Momentum Timing: Can it produce higher returns?

Momentum investing is such a simple strategy that it could even invite ridiculing laughter. Yet, it works: Momentum Stock Investing in India: Does it work? Yesterday the Momentum, Low Volatility Stock Screener June 2019 was released. This allows you to screen for momentum stocks with low volatility (quality momentum) among the Nifty 100 stocks. In this post,…

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Are we now in a bear market? Market Analysis (October 2018)

Are we now in a bear market? Can we get an idea using long-term technical indicators? In my opinion, there are two robust ways to time the market for lowering investment risk: either use technical indicators/macroeconomic indicators or use a combination of both. Starting this month, I shall be publishing a market analysis based on both…

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Timing the market by spotting bullish and bearish trends

I discuss how to use how to time the market by spotting bullish and bearish trends with the moving average crossover. The idea is well known in technical analysis and involves two moving averages.  This is the 7th post in the series on tactical asset allocation (link to all posts). We had earlier considered market Timing With…

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Market Timing with the Motilal Oswal Value Index (MOVI)

In the 6th part on the series on tactical asset allocation techniques based on market timing, we evaluate the Motilal Oswal Value Index (MOVI) over five-year vs ten-year periods. The MOVI index data is available at the Motilal Oswal website used a combination of  Nifty price to earnings ratio (PE), price to book value (PB) and dividend yield…

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