Use this automated mutual fund rolling returns calculator to evaluate the consistency in performance of a mutual fund over any interval from April 3rd 2006 onward. You can compare results with benchmarks like Sensex, CNX Nifty, CNX Small-cap, and CNX Mid-Cap.
This version is a major improvement over the previous Excel Rolling Returns Calculator. The analysis section also includes plots of the NAV with the index and rolling returns.
If you wish to know what is rolling returns and why one should calculate it, you can consult this post or this article
Let us briefly discuss why a rolling return calculation is important.
Suppose we would like to know, how consistent a mutual fund has performed, how often has it performed better or worse than its benchmark (or a closely related index), how would be go about it?
In a rolling returns calculation, the key output is the frequency of outperformance. The present version allows evaluating how often the fund has outperformed its benchmark in the interval chosen for analysis.
Thus rolling returns analysis allows us to evaluate the consistency in the funds performance over different market conditions.
Note: Rolling returns analysis is useful but understanding market volatility is more important. Evaluating rolling returns for last 1-2 years only makes little sense to me. You will need to look at a wider time interval.
Results using the Mutual Fund Rolling Returns Calculator
HDFC Top 200 compared with BSE- Sensex
1-year rolling returns of HDFC Top 200 vs. BSE Sensex (April 3rd 2006 to 24th October 2013)
3-year rolling returns of HDFC Top 200 vs. BSE Sensex (April 3rd 2006 to 24th October 2013)
5-year rolling returns of HDFC Top 200 vs. BSE Sensex (April 3rd 2006 to 24th October 2013)
What do these results tell us?
- The fund has underperformed recently? Yes of course!
- The longer you stay invested in the fund, the higher the chances of getting a return that is better than the index? Yes of course!
Question is, which of these two results will you pay more attention to?
My choice: No. 2 (read this DIY analysis of HDFC Top 200 to learn why.
Further results from the mutual fund rolling returns calculator for HDFC Top 200
|Rolling return interval||Chance of beating index|
I am pretty comfortable with these numbers. Are you?