Automated Stock Analysis V9: Earnings Growth Estimation

Version 9 of the automated stock analysis sheet now  projects expected earnings per share and calculates the forward PE. Some bugs have been corrected and minor improvements made.

List of features of the freefincal stock analyzer

The automated stock analysis sheet

  • pulls financials from morningstar and analyzes them
  • pulls adjusted stock price history from money control, and
  • calculates intrinsic value six different ways!

It also pulls annual (standalone/consolidated) and quarterly financials from Value Research online. However, this is not used in any calculation. 

Note: You need macros enabled. If it does not work from one network, try from another. It usually will not work if you try from your office.

Valuation models available:

1) Price Multiple Model

2) Sustainable Growth Rate

3) Book Value Growth Rate (Buffett’s approach to valuation)

4) Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) 

5) Reverse DCF Valuation

6) Graham formula  and Graham number

All necessary links for learning each valuation model is provided in the Excel sheet itself. Following the flow of information in the sheet, a new investor should be able to understand how the valuation is done.

The sheet also calculates Piotroski Score for the last 9 financial years

Earnings Growth (EPS) Estimation

The earnings per share is projected with a simple linear fit in two ways: (1) using EPS vs year data and (2) using Log(EPS) vs year data.  This is an extremely crude estimate and should be used with abundant caution.

The projected EPS can be used for calculated Forward PE. This is done in the price multiple model valuation sheet. A higher forward PE than current PE could indicate lower earnings in future (this is only a projection).

Forward-PE-EPS-projection

 

 

 

Use only for solid companies which are expected to consistently do well.

Bug fix

  • Thanks to Gaurav Anand for pointing out an error in the Graham formula  and Graham number sheet. This is now fixed.

How can this sheet be improved?

Please let me know additional features that can be incorporated and changes in the present format that will  make the sheet useful.  I would like the sheet to become more inviting.

Trivia: Version 1 was released on 25th Dec. 2014.

Automated Return on Equity Analysis with the Dupont Formula (version 10, Apr 2016)

Download the freefincal stock analysis sheet version 9 (Dec. 2015)

Note: VR has made it necessary to login to see returns. Therefore, please do the following:

  1. Open blank excel
  2. Select Data in the menu
  3. Click get external data and then from web
  4. A browser window will open and there will annoying script error messages. Dismiss them.
  5. Then Go to VR online in that window and go to main page. There will annoying messages. Dismiss them.
  6. Click on login. If you are not able to do so. Stop the page from downloading and then click
  7. Login with your email (preferable) and click on remember me.
  8. Now you can exit the browser window and start using the screener. It should work fine now.

VR download feature is not necessary for the feature to work.

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15 thoughts on “Automated Stock Analysis V9: Earnings Growth Estimation

  1. mohammed shakil

    Dear,
    thanks for the excel sheet, your efforts can be seen in the pages.
    but its too complicated to figure out for a beginner at excel like me. can you make a video to show the complete process. which all website do i need to log in before using the excel and one suggesting more graph less table :-).
    I still appriciate it, hopeing to take help of a freind who knows excel well.

    I believe this can be a payable product similar to oldschoolvalue and valuespreedsheet. please continue the good work .

    Reply
  2. Arun

    This is indeed a great spreadsheet tool for analysis of companies -
    a suggestion , charts may be useful as included in other spreadsheets of similar type. However I am not able to get data from moneycontrol , though i have logged on the site with my password and then try to populate information re: accounts - i wonder where i am going wrong.
    But thanks anyway
    cheers

    Reply
  3. Rohit

    First of all Thanks all the Excels ,They are truly Amazing and appreciate your work on this.

    Is it Possible to Have Analysis based on Sector Wise?
    For Ex :When Analysing Banks
    If we can have Net Interest Margins,Liquidity ratios like loan to deposit ratios,Borrowing to Networth ratio and Shareholding Pattern for all the Sectors.

    Reply
    1. freefincal

      Thanks. Can you tell me where I can get the data to calculate these? FYI I am not a stock investors. My interest is purely academic and I know very little.

      Reply
  4. Himanshu

    Hello sir

    I am seeing Colgate being referred to in a number of places , inspite of changing the company. For eg I am trying to look-up SBI but I am seeing Colgate referred to in number of places. Am I missing something ? I am using Excel 2007 in windows

    Reply
  5. dev

    Hello,

    This looks like a wonderful piece of work. However I live in the USA. If you could provide some guidelines on how to change it to work over here I would greatly appreciate it.

    Thanks!
    Dev.

    Reply
    1. freefincal

      MorningStar USA has a similar and more detailed resource. I will try and see if a similar sheet can be done.

      Reply
  6. HM

    Hi Sir,

    The analyzer doesnt work now. For some reason Payout ratio & Book value per share on Analysis tab comes as N/A#. Due to which the Graham Valuation number fails.

    Reply
    1. freefincal

      It depends on the stock. If the data is retrieved from MorningStar then it only depends on the availability of data there. Try something simple like Colgate and check and then let me know. Thanks.

      Reply
  7. HM

    Did check for Col Pal, the values still show up as NA#. Looks like Morningstar has changed some data formats & hence the issue

    Reply
    1. freefincal

      I checked this. The morning star data is downloaded fine and the book value and div yield are there in the analysis sheet.

      Reply
  8. HM

    Hello Sir,

    Did some digging after Downloading the fresh sheet from here.

    Whats going wrong is, in Analysis Tab the field is "Book Value Per Share INR" where as in Morning Star data it is "Book Value Per Share * INR". The * is missing & since the formula searches for exact value I am getting #NA. The same is happening with "Payout Ratio %" & "Payout Ratio *".

    Now it would be an eaasy fix for me to change it in the template.

    Reply

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