I have been posting one video a day for the last 40 days and YouTube has taught me about what mutual fund investors want during this time that Facebook (Asan Ideas for Wealth) did in years. Mutual funds investors do not want to listen to the truth about the risk associated with their investment in equity funds. They believe or want to believe everything will be okay and if they wait long enough, it guarantees them to good returns.
Naturally I am not referring to every mutual fund investor but a big slice. Forget about rolling lump sum returns, rolling SIP returns, etc. The simple and standard statement,
Past performance of the schemes is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance, and may not be considered as the basis for future investment decisions – Axis MF
is the first causality. It is like everyone understands what the words stands for but are refusing to understand what they mean. Like smokers who see a cancerous lung in each pack they open, but ignore it. The attitude seems to be: mutual funds are risky, and they do not guarantee returns but if we wait long enough, it guarantees returns!!
Good job, dear AMCs, sales guys and the media. The mis-selling is grand and complete. So what happened? Why am I ranting? You Tube happened!
On 13th Dec 2018, I published a video of what I have mentioned here multiple times: mutual funds have no compounding benefit. A CAGR or a XIRR or an annualized return is purely artificial only because we want to measure growth like a fixed deposit. Real growth is a mutual fund is severely volatile and has nothing to do with compounding. Article link: Don’t get fooled: Mutual funds have no compounding benefit!
The number of comments that followed was shocking! I am motivated by what many of them implied.Then I followed it up on Dec 14th with SIPs will not work without timing luck where rolling return SIP data presented to show the risks of an unmanaged SIP. Article link: How the fate of your mutual fund SIPs is decided by “timing luck”
In both videos, I only said (as regular readers will know) that buy and hold in hope is wrong. Manage risk because if you look at the CAGR of past returns, you are forgetting the actual journey. Simple SIPping will not help, and you will need to systematically manage risk.
In what follows, I shall reproduce comments from both the above videos. Many comments, a couple were hateful, e.g. targeted at my mom and YouTube removed these (or I did).
What is my intention here? Many people who call themselves experts focus on “behavioral aspects” of investing and harp about why people do not stay invested for long. I think it is important to also harp about the same behavioral aspects in staying invested with wrong notions (often propagated by the same experts).
When my ideas are exposed to a new audience, it is like gold. Regular readers or those with whom I interact with on AIFW may not be so eager in declaring their confidence.
While I do not agree with the comments below and am of the opinion that they are wrong (with proof), my intention in reproducing them here is not to insult any YouTube user. Unlike many of them, it is possible to point out someone is wrong without trading insults. I would like to use them for studying behavior and also offer proof against their stance for freefincal readers who may also be of the same opinion that if we hold, things will become okay.
I am also not disappointed or insulted. In today’s world, popularity is judged by hate. The more the hate, the more popular you are.
The comments below are proof that in terms of financial literacy we seem to have jumped from the frying pan of safe endowment policies to the fire of safe equity. RIP financial literacy
I am disappointed that many who agreed with be that there is no compounding and SIPs will not work without luck felt that mutual funds are like gambling and a fraud. They assumed that I am recommending to stay away from mfs.
Then there are many who claimed I am discouraging people to invest in mfs! As if it is a noble task that everyone should take part in.
Then many asked, “if not mfs, what to do?”. Their logic is simple, if something does not compound, then it is not possible to make money there! It is a pity that the human brain wants the walking stick of “power of compounding” to believe in equity or wealth
A challenge to sales guys: Is it possible to sell equity mutual funds without using the phrase: power of compounding?
What you see from this point on are the actual comments (sometimes sections of them). Note that these are public YouTube comments made on my channel and I reserve the right to anonymously reproduce them here with attribution. If you want your comment removed from below, then delete them from the video first.
I have highlighted sentences to point out the confidence of the person that equity will work for sure although there is no evidence it will (see proof section). As mentioned read the comments to get a feel of what investors are expecting and how far removed it is from the truth.
The comments (you can see the full list at YouTube)!
… after the long term MF gives the effect of compounding , (at the long end of waiting) and gives big money(assuming positive fluctuation when we come out) long-term inverters could take advantage
Well common man is not bothered about this as long as he makes decent profit after invested for long period.what u said is also applicable for real estate,gold,shares etc.sometime price will go up and sometime it will come down.but in long run overall returns will be better than FD
… Mutual funds have market risk, that does not necessarily mean you will end up zero capital. Last one year most of the Mutual fund returns have given negative returns or small positive. It is advisable to do SIPs which will buy more NAV units when market is down and buy less NAV units when market is going up. So Mutual funds are safe investment as long as you are not worried about negative to postitve or positive to negative fluctuations.
Sir no offence but the agents also state that mutual funds are always for long term. By which I mean around 3 to 5 years and hence they give annulazied return. And never can markets be stable. You are totally misleading people
… When we invest in mutual funds, we are basically investing in the economy of the country. Now on Y-o-Y basis, the GDP may vary, but over a long period of say 30 years, that gdp follows an approximate growth curve of 8%. And since you are investing in the economy, with an added factor of inflation of 7%, your annual growth rate over a long period tends to be around 15%. While that may not be guaranteed in the short term, barring catastrophes like world war, Zombie apocalype and armageddon, your growth rate of 15% over long period is pretty much guaranteed
I have written several articles on why buying and holding will not always work over the “long term”. Here are a few. If you study these with an open mind, it will be clear enough that there is no guarantee that equity funds will beat FD returns!!
- Will long-term equity investing always be successful?
- Lessons from my SIP in Sundaram Select Midcap Fund
- Beware of Misinformation: Mutual Fund SIPs Do Not Reduce Risk!
- Sensex Charts 35 year returns analysis: stock market returns vs risk distribution
- Dollar Cost Averaging aka SIP analysis of S&P 500 and BSE Sensex
The response and solution
More Entertaining comments
Typical Indian professor who is in love with the concept more than the application or results. MFs always say invest for long term and that there is risk and if u are invested for longer term then u are inclined to make more than FDs. Thats it. Here i was waiting to see something groundbreaking and all i heard in 10 mins is repeated barrage of what is essentially a pedestrian concept i.e compound interest
What are your thoughts on these comments?
Would you like to sit and assume time will heal the wounds of market volatility or do you believe in risk management?
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