freefincal

Simple how-to articles and free tools for financing your goals, managing your money, mutual fund and stock investments

What equity return will you be happy with?

Financial Planning
20 Comments

A few days ago, I had asked in Facebook group Asan Ideas for Wealth, “If you could gaze through a crystal ball and look into your future portfolio at a time when you are just about to retire, what net return from equity (assuming you are left with some!!) would you be happy with?”

The responses were either in terms of inflation (2-4% above inflation) or an actual number .Many (including me) said  that they would be happy with about 12% and delighted with about 15% (which is pretty much the same as 2-3% above long-term inflation).

I think you would agree with that such an expectation is quite realistic and has reasonable chance of coming true (provided the goal is at least 10Y away).

The best part is that it can be achieved with relatively low-risk options.

1) With mutual funds alone. No need for direct equity, which is definitely more stressful. There are many who will gladly forgo the chance of getting a higher return with stocks and stick to mutual funds. It is simpler and hassle free. Typically most mutual funds will get you home (see below).

2) With large-cap funds alone. Consider this. We have 34 ten year old large cap funds in the market. Out of these, 13 are index funds. They have managed to make around 11-12% (XIRR) in a 1o-year SIP. This is a pretty decent return with zero stress, but only with the conviction in index investing.

Assuming we can do better with an active fund and we review the investment at least once a year, we can get rid of dud amcs like JM and LIC Nomura.

This leaves us with 19 large cap funds.  The lowest 10-year SIP XIRR is

14.45% by Baroda Pioneer Growth Fund and the highest,

17.68% UTI Equity.

All we need is one large cap fund with a proper investment process in mind (preferably on paper). This will help us attain the return that we desire.

Of course, we can include mid caps , small caps etc. for diversification and potential to earn more returns. The point I wish to make here is that beating inflation and even getting the return that we would eventually be happy with is quite simple.  There are many ways of doing this. Even a single equity-oriented balanced fund will get the job done comfortably.

So why bother taking on more risk? Why worry about  market movements, PE based investing, tactical asset allocation etc. when can keep it so simple

Wealth is created by investing early and investing as much as possible systematically irrespective of market conditions.

Investors who are new to equity markets should start with a simple large cap index or actively managed fund, get used to market volatility and then can branch out to the mid and small cap segment.

Why waste time fretting about portfolio management? Let us do the basics right and spend our time with people we love and doing the things that we love.

Do you agree?  If you could gaze through a crystal ball and look into your future portfolio at a time when you are just about to retire, what net return from equity (assuming you are left with some!!) would you be happy with?

Subscribe and join the freefincal Youtube community!

 Don't like ads but want to support the site? Subscribe to the ad-free newsletter! 
You will get the full post-ad-free delivered to your inbox for Rs. 3000 a year. Follow this link to read the terms and sign up! 
Want to conduct a sales-free "basics of money management" session in your office?
I conduct free seminars to employees or societies. Only the very basics and getting-started steps are discussed (no scary math):For example: How to define financial goals, how to save tax with a clear goal in mind; How to use a credit card for maximum benefit; When to buy a house; How to start investing; where to invest; how to invest for and after retirement etc. depending on the audience. If you are interested, you can contact me: freefincal [at] Gmail [dot] com. I can do the talk via conferencing software, so there is no cost for your company. If you want me to travel, you need to cover my airfare (I live in Chennai)

Connect with us on social media

Do check out my books

You Can Be Rich Too with Goal-Based InvestingYou can be rich too with goal based investing

My first book is meant to help you ask the right questions, seek the right answers and since it comes with nine online calculators, you can also create customg solutions for your lifestye!Get it now.  It is also available in Kindle format.

Gamechanger: Forget Startups, Join Corporate & Still Live the Rich Life You Want

Gamechanger: Forget Start-ups, Join Corporate and Still Live the Rich Life you want My second book is meant for young earners to get their basics right from day one! It will also help you travel to exotic places at low cost! Get it or gift it to a youngearner

The ultimate guide to travel by Pranav Surya

Travel-Training-Kit-Cover This is a deep dive analysis into vacation planning, finding cheap flights, budget accommodation, what to do when travelling, how travelling slowly is better financially and psychologically with links to the web pages and hand-holding at every step.  Get the pdf for ₹199 (instant download)

Create a "from start to finish" financial plan with this free robo advisory software template

Free Apps for your Android Phone

All calculators from our book, “You can be Rich Too” are now available on Google Play!
Install Financial Freedom App! (Google Play Store)
Install Freefincal Retirement Planner App! (Google Play Store)
Find out if you have enough to say "FU" to your employer (Google Play Store)

About Freefincal

Freefincal has open-source, comprehensive Excel spreadsheets, tools, analysis and unbiased, conflict of interest-free commentary on different aspects of personal finance and investing. If you find the content useful, please consider supporting us by (1) sharing our articles and (2) disabling ad-blockers for our site if you are using one. We do not accept sponsored posts, links or guest posts request from content writers and agencies.

Blog Comment Policy

Your thoughts are vital to the health of this blog and are the driving force behind the analysis and calculators that you see here. We welcome criticism and differing opinions. I will do my very best to respond to all comments asap. Please do not include hyperlinks or email ids in the comment body. Such comments will be moderated and I reserve the right to delete the entire comment or remove the links before approving them.
Updated: May 13, 2015 — 4:10 pm

20 Comments

  1. Ranjan George Thomas

    Hi Pattu sir,
    I sometimes wonder why amcs like JM get it so wrong when the basic principles of investing success are clearly defined; are the managers simply less competent than the ones at Quantum or Franklin? Any thoughts on their abysmal performance?

  2. Ranjan George Thomas

    Hi Pattu sir,
    I sometimes wonder why amcs like JM get it so wrong when the basic principles of investing success are clearly defined; are the managers simply less competent than the ones at Quantum or Franklin? Any thoughts on their abysmal performance?

  3. Indra

    Hi Pattu
    Thanks for the thought provoking post. My number will be 15% over the next 20 years. Feel that this is reasonable given last 11 years experience in the market.

    Regards, Indra

    1. freefincal

      Thank you. Yes I agree,

  4. Indra

    Hi Pattu
    Thanks for the thought provoking post. My number will be 15% over the next 20 years. Feel that this is reasonable given last 11 years experience in the market.

    Regards, Indra

    1. freefincal

      Thank you. Yes I agree,

  5. Shan

    Repeating what I’ve said on the FB group many moons ago – The Nifty Jr Midcap ETF (Junior BeES) has given nearly 25% CAGR since inception and has handily beaten the Nifty and inflation. Recently, even the likes of Marty Whitman have been unable to beat ETFs (see Barron’s excellent article here http://online.barrons.com/articles/can-third-avenue-get-back-on-track-1431136270 )

    Your star fund manager (or a reputed house like JM or Nomura) could end up in the same boat. Or we could lose a star fund manager like Parag Parikh in an unfortunate accident.

    If you are going to be invested for say 20-25 years or more, why take a risk? Aren’t the index returns enough?

    1. freefincal

      Agree. However some active funds are less volatile than then index. As long as it is so easy to beat the index (80% of funds manage that), I dont see why one cannot take advantage of this.

  6. Shan

    Repeating what I’ve said on the FB group many moons ago – The Nifty Jr Midcap ETF (Junior BeES) has given nearly 25% CAGR since inception and has handily beaten the Nifty and inflation. Recently, even the likes of Marty Whitman have been unable to beat ETFs (see Barron’s excellent article here http://online.barrons.com/articles/can-third-avenue-get-back-on-track-1431136270 )

    Your star fund manager (or a reputed house like JM or Nomura) could end up in the same boat. Or we could lose a star fund manager like Parag Parikh in an unfortunate accident.

    If you are going to be invested for say 20-25 years or more, why take a risk? Aren’t the index returns enough?

    1. freefincal

      Agree. However some active funds are less volatile than then index. As long as it is so easy to beat the index (80% of funds manage that), I dont see why one cannot take advantage of this.

  7. Anand

    Thanks Pattu. “Even a single equity-oriented balanced fund will get the job done comfortably.” – Appreciate that and would love to see a post on comparative analysis of top quartile ‘equity-oriented balanced funds’ with the top quartile of ‘any cap, pure equity funds’ and the ways and means to getting the job done through 1 or 2 of equity-oriented balanced funds..

    1. freefincal

      Hi man. I was thinking about you when I wrote that. This will be the next post.

      1. Anand

        Thanks for your consideration Pattu. Its always a pleasure reading and soaking all this up..leading to (hopefully) better actions 🙂

        1. freefincal

          Thank you. The balanced fund post is now up.

  8. Anand

    Thanks Pattu. “Even a single equity-oriented balanced fund will get the job done comfortably.” – Appreciate that and would love to see a post on comparative analysis of top quartile ‘equity-oriented balanced funds’ with the top quartile of ‘any cap, pure equity funds’ and the ways and means to getting the job done through 1 or 2 of equity-oriented balanced funds..

    1. freefincal

      Hi man. I was thinking about you when I wrote that. This will be the next post.

      1. Anand

        Thanks for your consideration Pattu. Its always a pleasure reading and soaking all this up..leading to (hopefully) better actions 🙂

        1. freefincal

          Thank you. The balanced fund post is now up.

  9. Pattabiraman Murari

    I dont know Ranjan. I was not tracking industry developments when it failed. Will try to dig some info

  10. Pattabiraman Murari

    I dont know Ranjan. I was not tracking industry developments when it failed. Will try to dig some info

Comments are closed.

freefincal © 2019 Frontier Theme