Stock Comparison Tool: Risk vs. Reward

Published: January 10, 2015 at 9:48 am

Use this Excel tool to compare risk vs. reward in Indian stock investments. The index component of the stock price analyzer published yesterday has been removed to enable comparison between two stocks.

The way I see it, this comparison tool can be used for any stocks irrespective of the sector they belong (unlike financial statements).  Such a comparison would help when there is not much to differentiate between two businesses based on the balance sheet history. Questions like, ‘which stock is more volatile?’, ‘which stock is less stressful to hold (Ulcer index analysis)?’ can be answered

Two versions of the sheet are available:

  • The ‘annual’ version in which risk and reward metrics are computed for each annual year for the last  8 years and SIP and lump sum returns are calculated for the 15 years (if available of course).
  • The ‘investment duration’ version calculates risk and reward metrics for investment durations ranging 1-8 years and SIP and lump sum returns are calculated for durations ranging 1-15 years.

The delivery brokerage is taken into account while calculating returns.

The sheet pulls stock price data (adjusted for splits, dividends and bonuses) from Money Control. The earlier version of the historical stock downloader has now been updated with automatic retrieval of moneycontrol stock codes.

The metrics used are identical to that used in the mutual fund analyzer tool:

Beta, standard deviation, alpha, Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, information ratio, omega ratio, Sortino ratio, upside and downside capture ratios and the Ulcer index.

To get a brief idea about these metrics, users can consult:
Mutual Fund Risk-return analyzer
Mutual Fund analysis with the Ulcer Index
Simplify Mutual Fund Analysis with Upside/Downside Capture Ratios
 

Metrics like upside/downside ratios make better senses when stocks of the same industry are compared.

Here is a sample illustration. Note that I do not own both stocks.

Asian Paints vs. Berger Paints

Adjusted prices of both stocks
Adjusted prices of both stocks
stock-comparison-tool-2
Investors who have held on to both stocks for the last 10Y, have got similar returns
Risk-return score. Asian paints (stock A) has not done as well in recent years
Risk-return score. Asian paints (stock A) has not done as well in recent years
fg
Ulcer index of Asian paints is generally lower. So an investment in Asian paints is less stressful. Although the current normalized stock prices are nearly the same, Asian Paints has enjoyed a smoother ride. 
stock-comparison-tool-5
Asian Paints (stock A) has consistently offered a superior risk-adjusted return when compared with Berger. However, the metric for Asian paint is more volatile.
df
These are annual returns. Berger paints has returned more in the last few years.
d
Annual risk-return score.  Notice the gradual decline for Asian paints in comparison to Berger.
fd
Annual risk-adjusted performance of Asian paints (stock A) has been inconsistent relative to Berger.

Based on these results, I think Berger paints is better than Asian paints.   This is only one  side of the coin. Now head over to the stock  analyzer that uses morningstar balanced sheet data to find out consistency in financials and determine valuations.

Comments and suggestions are welcome.

Download the Stock Comparison Tool – Investment Duration Version

Download the Stock Comparison Tool – Annual Version

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About the Author Pattabiraman editor freefincalM. Pattabiraman(PhD) is the founder, managing editor and primary author of freefincal. He is an associate professor at the Indian Institute of Technology, Madras. since Aug 2006. Connect with him via Twitter or Linkedin Pattabiraman has co-authored two print-books, You can be rich too with goal-based investing (CNBC TV18) and Gamechanger and seven other free e-books on various topics of money management. He is a patron and co-founder of “Fee-only India” an organisation to promote unbiased, commission-free investment advice. He conducts free money management sessions for corporates and associations on the basis of money management. Previous engagements include World Bank, RBI, BHEL, Asian Paints, Cognizant, Madras Atomic Power Station, Honeywell, Tamil Nadu Investors Association. For speaking engagements write to pattu [at] freefincal [dot] com
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